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3 Ways Trump Could Win Bigly in 2020
These scenarios keep Democratic strategists awake long into the night.
Donald Trump has never been a broadly popular President: FiveThirtyEight maintains a visualization of his aggregated polling, and the results are, well, not fantastic. For much of his tenure, his net approval rating has lagged behind that of his predecessors (although he recently pulled roughly even with Reagan and Carter; or rather, they dipped down to him).
In light of that, it’s tempting to suggest that Trump is toast come 2020, provided the Democrats can field a candidate who doesn’t commit unforgiveable gaffes (and a third-party candidate doesn’t disrupt everything in favor of the incumbency). But not so fast: There are a few factors that could guarantee a Trump victory, and not in a single-state squeaker; there are scenarios, in fact, in which he wins big.
We Get into a Shooting War
In political science, it’s called the “Rally ‘Round the Flag Effect”: The popularity of the U.S. President usually spikes in event of a big war or significant “international incident.” For a good example of this effect, look at the presidency of George W. Bush, who enjoyed three big “jumps” in his popularity: right after 9/11, right when the U.S. invaded Iraq, and right when U.S. troops…
